This is more than a diplomatic row among GCC members. Perhaps emboldened by President Trump’s visit, Saudi Arabia and its allies have declared if you are with Iran (or specific radical Sunni groups), you are against us. This effort to delineate sides in the region cannot be easily reversed without substantial outside pressure. Expect a geopolitical premium to creep into energy prices as this dispute continues.
Early indications from the Trump Administration hint at efforts to tip the balance back towards the Saudis.
Bloomberg : Jan 31, 2017
“It was a pretty nasty year, one of the toughest years ever for the global oil industry,” said Sarah Emerson, managing director at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The big difference now is oil is above $55 a barrel.”
Bloomberg : Jan 12, 2017
Sarah Emerson, managing principal at ESAI Energy LLC, said she expects African grades to continue to hit the East Coast, particularly as Libya and Nigeria boost production. “The one thing that helped boost…
Bloomberg : Dec 12, 2016
Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy Inc., said the collaboration with countries outside OPEC would “pull the global market into balance, if not in deficit, by the second quarter of 2017” rather than in the third quarter.