French Election is Victory for Europe

In the realm of international relations and U.S. foreign policy, an integrated Europe allied to the U.S. is seen as a plus for concerted action to counteract instability in regions such as the Middle East, North Africa and even the Balkans. The election of independent, centrist, Emmanuel Macron, to the French Presidency over the weekend was a clear victory for Integrated Europe as Macron ran on a pro-Europe platform.

Tensions with North Korea Becoming Critical Threat to Oil Markets

The strategic situation between the United States and North Korea is approaching an inflection point. The
U.S. decision of whether to attack North Korea before it develops an intercontinental strike rides on its belief
in the strength of mutual nuclear deterrence. But, North Korea is seeking to close what they perceive as an
almost seventy-year-old window of vulnerability. The U.S. may decide (with the encouragement of its allies)
to act before that window closes. The possibility of military conflict is growing and will materially impact key
oil consumers, South Korea and Japan, among others.

Stalemate Will Limit Libyan Production

Libya will not solve its own problems in 2017. And although international actors, including the US and Russia, have military presence in the country, their influence will not the tip scales toward national resolution or in favor of any faction. Continued violence and the undermining of the National Oil Company will keep oil production fluctuating between 400,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d for the foreseeable future.

Trump and a New Cold War in the Middle East

Trump Administration statements after the missile strike on Syria indicated a broad change in policy regarding the future of the Assad regime in Syria. Whether this is followed by other military, economic, or political actions remains to be seen. But, we have entered a new era in the Syrian civil war, which signals a subtle but important change in the new Cold War in the Middle East.